A Recent MUGEE (Misc. Uber Guber Email Exchange)

Recent email exchanges among some MUGs (Misc. Uber Gubers) and Cyril (the MUG’s MUG) aka HiCoBob

Date: Dec 25, 2009 1:50 AM
TherelessBob,
The BBC Worldservice has apparently come to the conclusion that the big crash was caused primarily by the U. S. government's policy on housing loans, so guess you can smile modestly.
I continue to believe that the primary cause was computer technology, quants, and greed.
HiCoBob
PS - the BBC Worldservice also thinks
The Scent of Desire: Discovering Our Enigmatic Sense of Smell by ...
the greatest thing since sliced bread

===========

The BBC Worldservice conclusion WRT the big crash and the cause - the U. S. government's policy on housing loans - is close but there are many villains and lots of blame to go to many individuals, groups and processes! Along the way, lots of money was made and, to this day, many villains remain at large.

[YanCoBob]

============

What do you mean, "smile modestly"? I am gloating immoderately. Let the names of Barney Frank and Christopher J. Dodd live in infamy.

The three factors you mention were all present in the economic debacle, but cannot be primary causes: (1) greed is omnipresent; you can no more call it the cause of specific events than you can call gravity the cause of aircraft crashes or water the cause of drowning. (2 and 3) Computers and the people who use them do not set goals and priorities -- that is the done by politicians.

[SmugBob]

=============

HiCoBob,

I totally concur with your thoughts on the ‘why’ our economy is flirting with disaster. However, I must add one more item, laziness plus our government money printing machine.
When the US dropped the last part of the Gold Standard in 1971, inflation became a larger factor in our economy. People thought they had more money but their ‘buying power’ was decrease at a higher rate than the inflation factor.
Another problem surfaced, what would replace the Gold Standard, perhaps you remember the oil crisis of the early 70’s. The price of then named sweet Texas crude became the standard for our monetary system, and we have been stuck with it ever since.

The ‘B’ schools certainly placed Greed on a pedestal, and then there is the computer which works faster and faster each year. (I worked as a thermodynamic engineer in the 50’s & it took me about a week to calculate and size a piece of equipment. Combustion Engineering, the firm I worked for, purchased a Royal McB computer full of tubes.) With this new technology it only took 17 minutes to do the same job. Our 30 engineers plus the 35 engineers in the Stress Analyst group was reduced to one department of 25 engineers plus added responsibilities than the original Thermodynamics group. At Bemis, when the computers of the late 80’s early 90’s appeared all the secretaries lost their jobs but two. Our work day was also increase by several hours. The stock price soared, as the P/E ration changed.

The way Washington is planning our future, I feel that it will be dark.

SoCoBob

================

I see no evidence from Washington (either party) of anything I would call a plan. Yes, there is a budget an income statement and an expense statement but that's not a plan. Do we have a health care plan, none I can see. Do we have a competitiveness plan, a manufacturing plan, an export/import plan, an education plan, a tax plan. a natural resource plan? What we have is "the market" and wars - Iraq, Afghanistan and drugs. We have huge unfunded liabilities that can only be funded by a combination of immigration and inflation - what a country!

[YanCoBob]